2019’s Big Ticket Items

For a year that will go down in history as one of sluggish global growth and productivity, a wrap of 2019 tells us that even slow period can produce market events that are significant, colourful and – at times – theatrical. Here, we take a look at some global events which were watched or felt by markets.

It serves as an important reminder that noise surrounding investment markets doesn’t always have a material or lasting impact.

“We get obsessed every time the market takes a tumble… down many billions of dollars,” says AMP Capital’s chief economist, Shane Oliver. “But we’re never told when the billions are put back on. And in the great scheme of things, I think most market gyrations are a non-event.”


January

4-6 Jerome Powell turns dovish, American Economic Association.

7-9 US and China enter trade talks, raising hopes of an end to the bruising trade war.

30-31 US and China hold trade talks in Washington.

 

February

4 Australia’s Royal Commission into banking and financial services releases final report.

6 Reserve Bank of Australia signals neutral bias

11-15 US and China hold trade talks in Beijing

21-24 US and China hold trade talks in Washington

 

March

15 Hong Kong anti-government protesters stage a sit-in at the Central Government complex in portest of a proposed extradition bill.

28-29 US and China hold trade talks in Beijing

29 Original planned date for UK to leave the EU passes after the UK parliament fails three times to pass a vote on withdrawal.

 

April

3 US and China hold trade talks in Washington.

9 Australian Federal Budget released, tax cuts follow for low-middle income earners.

10 Brexit deadline extended to 31st October.

30 US and China hold trade talks in Beijing.

 

May

10 US-China trade war intensifies as talks fail to reach a deal. Trump increases tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods to 25%. China retaliates by lifting tariffs on $60bn worth of US goods by 7.5%

18 Australia’s conservative coalition government wins third term in federal election.

20 Australian Prudential Regulation Authority indicates a cut in the interest rate serviceability floor. UK PM Theresa May says she will step down after failing to get a Brexit deal through parliament.

 

June

4 The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts the cash rate to 1.25% for the first time since August 2016

29 US-China trade war seems to reach a truce; talks scheduled to re-start.

 

July

1 In Hong Kong, hundreds of thousands turn out for a protest march.

2 Reserve Bank of Australia cuts the cash rate to 1.00%

11 Dow Jones Industrial Average tops 27,000 for the first time.

30 Australian share benchmark ASX/S&P 200 hits all-time high of 6845, more that 11 years since hitting the peak.

 

August

1 US-China trade wars resume as President Trump puts 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports from September 1. US Fed eases rates by 25 basis points to between 2% and 2.25%.

5 The Chinese yuan falls to its lowest level in 10 years against the US dollar. Dow Jones falls 1,400 points over four days.

14 US 10-year Treasury bond yield starts dipping under 2-year yield. “Yield inversion” seen as harbinger of recession.

3-23 Anti-government protests in Hong Kong escalate, with transport links affected.

 

September

12 European Central Bank cuts rates to a record low and signal a restart to quantitative easing. Deposit rate cut to minus 0.5%

19 US Fed eases rates by 25 basis points to between 1.75% and 2%

 

October

1 Reserve Bank of Australia cuts the cash rate to 0.75%.

2 Slowing jobs and weak manufacturing data raise fears of recession in the US. Dow Jones falls 800 points in 2 days.

28 EU sets new “flexible” deadline for Brexit – Jan 31 2020.

31 US Fed eases rates by 25 basis points to between 1.50% and 1.75%.

 

November

6 UK parliament dissolved ahead of December general election.

15 Dow Jones Industrial average tops 28,000 for the first time.

27 President Trump signs into law an act that mandates an annual review of Hong Kong’s special trade status with the US.

28 Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 hits record high in two consecutive days.

 

December

2 President Trump unexpectedly expands trade wars by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminium from Brazil and Argentina, accusing them of devaluing their currencies and America flags tariffs in some imports from France. Dow Jones falls 268 points.

12 UK general election. US/China trade deal agreed in principle.

 

 

 

 

Important Notes

While every care has been taken in the preparation of these articles, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in them including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The information in this document contains statements that are the author’s beliefs and/or opinions. Any beliefs and/or opinions shared are as at the date shown and are subject to change without notice. These articles have been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. They should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.

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